Iran: Action Shifts to the IAEA
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Published on: December 1st 2007 13:34:24
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| As the IAEA considers the report of Director El-Baradei about Iran’s account of its nuclear program, the US is focusing on the report’s statement that Iran has mastered the technology to operate 3,000 centrifuges. Depending on the efficiency of this operation, the implication is that Tehran might obtain enough fissile material to manufacture at least one nuclear weapon by 2009. If correct, this would be a significant acceleration on earlier Administration estimates that Iran would not be able to obtain a weapon before 2012 at the earliest. This new timetable is subject to a number of technical questions. US officials have not attached major importance to it. A National Intelligence Estimate that will include this topic has been delayed by internal disagreement inside the Administration. Nonetheless, conservative commentators continue to make the case for military action. As before, we do not believe they are winning many converts. The Administration is, however, receiving persistent statements of concern from the Arab Gulf states about the rise of Iranian power. An Intelligence Community official commented: “The issue of concern in the Gulf is that growing Iranian hegemony has eroded the regional balance of power.” We do not expect this aspect to prove decisive but it does provide another reason why Iran will remain high on the US foreign policy agenda. |
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