| For the past month, foreign Ambassadors in Washington have been reporting to their capitals that the combination of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Secretary of Defense Bob Gates has “wrested control” of US foreign policy from Vice-President Dick Cheney. Old rumors have resurfaced that Rice would replace Cheney, with her deputy John Negroponte becoming Secretary of State. We have earlier described Cheney’s influence – or the lack of it – as one of the key variables in assessing US policy. Cheney’s current trip to the Middle East shows that he remains an important player. He delivered a tough message: 1) The “Arab quartet” of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States need to apply pressure on the Iraqi government for political progress; otherwise a US draw down will start. 2) While the US shares the concerns about Iran felt by the conservative Sunni states, they need to do more to isolate Iran if they want to avoid possible US military intervention. We hear from White House contacts that the choice of Cheney – who normally is a reluctant traveler – was deliberate. “The Arab leaders know that Cheney speaks with the same voice as the President. They are not so sure about Rice and Gates.” The fact that Cheney enjoys Bush’s trust as the person on whom he can rely in times of stress underpins his continuing influence. We hear that he uses this influence more sparingly than before the Iraq war. He did not fight, for example, to prevent Rice’s diplomatic opening to Syria. But, should a crisis arise over Iran later this summer, his voice will be an important one – making the argument for firm action. |
