Inside the White House: Who’s Calling the Shots
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Published on: February 9th 2007 17:37:45
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| A continuing problem for anyone wishing to predict the course of the Bush Administration’s foreign policy has been to determine the relative influence of the various decision-makers. The pattern of relationships is not static. As we have noted earlier, (Iraq aside, the most important decision President Bush will face before leaving office in 2008 is over po), constant updating is required. However, our recent conversations with senior officials suggest that on the great issue of the day – US power in the Middle East – there are three critical levels of decision-making. At the moderate end of influence are the Departments of State, Defense and the Treasury led respectively by Condoleezza Rice, Bob Gates, and Hank Paulson. Their strengths are that they represent genuine sources of expertise and non-committed opinion. Their roles, however, are essentially advisory. White House insiders call them “satellites.” Their ability to reverse a course of action with which they disagree would likely depend on their willingness to resign. At the top end, no action is undertaken without Bush’s approval. But, as one senior official explained: “the policy choices that reach the President are limited to those that have been approved by Vice-President Dick Cheney.” For this reason, our conclusion is that Cheney and his circle – David Addington, John Hannah, and David Wurmser aided by Elliott Abrams, Head of Middle East Affairs at the National Security Council – represent the central elements for US decision-making. They, especially Cheney, are people of wide accomplishment in top governmental and corporate positions. Their common viewpoint is that they see the US as engaged in a generational struggle against radical Islam. They have little tolerance for negotiation and rarely consult with those who do not agree with them. One official told us: “At a briefing meeting between Bush, Cheney and Jim Baker, the head Iraq Study Group head, Baker had to restrain Cheney from walking out with the words ‘Sit back down Dick, you need to hear this.’” Our sense is that, as indicated by the “Sunni strategy” described above, the Cheney group remains ascendant – with the implications this brings for a US hard line in the Middle East. As before, we will continue to monitor Cheney’s influence carefully |
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